Forecast for the week of October 19th + what's the difference between watches and warnings?
By: Paige Klobucnik
Hi guys! I hope y’all enjoyed the cool weather from last week into the weekend, giving us a small taste of fall. I know I did! This past weekend I went to see one of my favorite artists, Phoebe Bridgers (YAYYYYY), in Fort Worth, and it was so fun being able to pick out a fall outfit! Most of my wardrobe is sweaters, so I am certainly ready to go! And when I woke up for work early this morning, it was so nice to feel the cold breeze outside to help me wake up. Anyway, unfortunately, for the rest of this week, we are going to see a steady warm up, with mostly clear skies. Highs will stay in the mid 80s, and by the time we get to the weekend, we should be sticking around the high 80s in the afternoons. Thankfully we should stop hitting the 90s, but we still have some ways to go before seeing constant cool weather. As you can see below we are in the above region for the 6-10 day temperature outlook.
Looking deeper into this, the reason for this temperature climb and clear skies is because we have a mid-level ridge sitting over our area (which is an extended area of high pressure, usually associated with fair weather due to sinking air). To better understand what a ridge is, here is a current upper level analysis map:
If you look closely at our region, there's this kind of n shaped isobar, which are lines of constant atmospheric pressure (the black lines) sitting above it, this is a direct indication of this upper level ridge. Now you just learned how to read a crucial part of an upper level analysis, which can tell us a lot about the weather that is to come.
Now I want to talk about something that is very important to understand, the difference between watches and warnings, and how they are issued through the National Weather Service. A watch is issued when the risk of hazardous weather has increased, but the occurrence, timing or location is still uncertain, it is provided so people can set their plans in motion, and understand that a hazard is possible to occur. A warning on the other hand is issued when a hazardous weather event is actually happening or is extremely likely to happen soon. These are issued when weather conditions pose a threat to life or property, meaning people in the warning region should take protective action immediately. When I volunteered at the NWS in Fort Worth, I actually had the opportunity to issue my own tornado warning, so I have a solid idea of the process. When a tornado or severe storm is spotted or clearly flagged via rotation or debris on a radar, there is a specialized software they use to draw a warning polygon (a targeted path showing the expected trajectory of the storm). This software then automatically generates a detailed text product listing affected towns and safety instructions. Here's what my tornado warning looks like (it is hanging on my wall as my prized possession)
As always, thank you guys so much for reading and I hope you learned a lot :) If you ever have any specific questions, feel free to send me an email filling out the contact form I have on my blog! I am always happy to take requests, I want this blog to be as educational to you as possible!
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