Forecast for the week of September 14th, 2026 + Some Information on Thunderstorms!

By: Paige Klobucnik

Hi guys!! I hope you all are staying cool in this period of high temperatures, I know we are all looking forward to some cooler temperatures, and especially fall (my favoriteeee). Today continued a pattern we have seen for a while, temperatures sticking in the high 90s, with heat index values poking into the 100s (so hot jeez). 

For the rest of the week, unfortunately is expected to look similar as today did, with highs in the high 90s, but with a tiny dip as we move into the weekend (tiny dip as in a high temperature of 97 instead of 100, but still). So please make sure you are staying hydrated and taking frequent breaks in the shade!! Sunny skies are also expected for the rest of the week, with increasing storm chances as we head into the weekend, but not high enough chances to get your hopes up for tons of rain.

As we are talking about storm chances, I wanted to take this opportunity to share some information on what thunderstorms really are, and how we classify them. This is my favorite topic within meteorology, so I wanted to take any excuse to talk about my favorite weather phenomena.

I took a course in college specifically on mesoscale meteorology, which if you're not familiar with what mesoscale means, is a classification for weather phenomena that can range from 2km-2000km in size, with an upper limit in the atmosphere of 1000km. This can include thunderstorms, mesoscale convective systems, squall lines and derechos. These mesoscale phenomena are in many ways dynamically special, in the sense that simplifications that we normally use in meteorology with equations, to make calculations easier, are not able to be applied. This is because these phenomena have strong horizontal pressure gradients, as well as significant vertical and horizontal accelerations that can not be simplified. These weather mechanisms depend very strongly on the local atmospheric state, so they are diverse and many times (if not always) case dependent. 

I know this seems pretty confusing, but it is much easier to understand these weather mechanisms if we break it down case by case. Thunderstorms are towering convective storms that are driven by rising warm, moist air. This is why, when rain is approaching, you can feel the air become significantly more saturated, and a lot of times, a cool breeze comes with approaching storms. Mesoscale convective systems are collections of thunderstorms organized into a larger system that can persist overnight. A lot of times with thunderstorms, the rising air and overall circulation of the storm can cause other storms to pop up, because the atmospheric conditions are just right. Squall lines are long lines of thunderstorms that move quickly. And what is most interesting to me, and is a topic of which I have done additional research on is derecho. These storms can spam 100s of kilometers and persist for hours upon hours. If you lived in the DFW area in 2007, you may remember a very violent derecho that caused a lot of damage, I remember being only 3 years old and having my house's power go out and hearing the violent roar of the wind! I have an additional project on this incident, which I will link to anyone who is interested in learning more, I analyzed a research paper that was published by Jennifer Dunn (who I worked alongside at the NWS in Forth Worth) and Ted Best! (Klobucnik_Paige.pdf)

Beautiful picture of an active derecho

What a squall line looks like on a weather map

Now after learning about all of these different kinds of mesoscale phenomena, you may be wondering (or not) why these mechanisms matter? The most damaging weather that we experience is often in the mesoscale. Living in DFW, and also moving down into the Houston area, we are very vulnerable to these severe storms, so it's important to have knowledge on what it is so you can be more aware of how to prioritize your safety!

Information on how to be safe during a thunderstorm!

I know I have dumped a lot of information onto you, but I hope you find it interesting and educational! Obviously there are a lot of complexities that come with mesoscale meteorology, but to me, that's why it is so interesting and captivating.

Thank you so much for reading, and as always, if you have any weather questions, feel free to send me an email and I can incorporate your questions into next week's blog! :)